Monday, 16 December 2013

DAB Radio Switchover: Dead As The Dodo

In 2004, I wrote my first article predicting that the UK's implementation of DAB digital radio was headed for failure. It was not guesswork. I had analysed radio industry data since 1980. I had worked at The Radio Authority when it implemented DAB. I had worked in Ofcom's radio division. I had seen DAB from inside and outside the regulator and the commercial radio industry. Only five years after its launch, the available evidence demonstrated that DAB was headed for disaster in the UK.

I continued to write about DAB – in press articles, in analyst reports, in my blog, in my book 'DAB Digital Radio: Licensed To Fail' – and to talk about DAB in radio and TV interviews. I did this not because I was 'anti-DAB' or a 'campaigner' (as some described me), but because my work as a media analyst requires me to carefully examine the facts and figures and to document their consequences. I had nothing to gain personally from stating evident truths.

Between 2004 and today, the UK radio industry could have scrutinised the growing collection of analyses that demonstrated DAB consumer take-up was failing. It could have taken firm, decisive action to transform DAB radio from failure to success. It chose not to. Instead, I found myself on the receiving end of abuse, slander and libel.

Two years ago, I stopped writing about UK radio in this blog because 'Jimmy's and 'John's were pasting my analyses into their press articles, blogs and corporate statements, uncredited and without permission. Those same people then e-mailed me to ask why I was no longer updating my blog!

I write today only to bookend this blog. In recent months, it has been interesting to witness some of my 'critics' make a 180-degree turn and suddenly herald the imminent non-event of DAB radio switchover, whilst citing my analyses (uncredited) in support of their newly adopted viewpoint.

I wrote about DAB because I consider that this single issue has contributed more to the decline of the UK radio industry than all other sector issues combined. Thousands of experienced radio professionals have lost their jobs. Hundreds of genuinely local radio stations have disappeared. Much radio in the UK has become a shadow of its former self. The medium is suffering rapidly declining appeal to those aged under 30. The industry that I have worked in since 1972 is on the rocks. Most of the blame for this sorry state of affairs can be laid directly at the UK radio industry's single-minded pursuit of DAB since the 1990s, at the expense of all other objectives and at a cost of more than £1bn.

Excerpt from client presentation by Grant Goddard in January 2012

In 2011, I had been invited by the government's Department of Culture, Media & Sport [DCMS] to participate in a consumer panel as part of its consultations about DAB switchover. Addressing an audience of industry stakeholders, I predicted that the government would kick the DAB radio switchover decision into the long grass in 2013. I made the same prediction in my presentation to the board of one of the UK's largest commercial radio companies [see above].

After the close of the DCMS stakeholder session, its chairperson, a civil servant in the DAB radio switchover section, leaned over to me and said something along the lines of: "You really shouldn't be writing the things you do. People don't like it, you know, and it is making them angry."

She is one of a select group of people in DCMS, Ofcom, Digital Radio UK, the BBC and RadioCentre who have earned their livings by pumping out factually incorrect reports supporting their fiction that DAB radio is a massive UK success story and that DAB switchover is inevitable. Public money and BBC Licence Fees have paid many of these people for years to mislead the public and the media about DAB radio.

Anyone with knowledge of the UK radio industry and training in statistics could have concluded from available data during the last decade that the implementation of DAB radio in the UK was headed for disaster. My analyses were not 'rocket science'. What riled the army of DAB propagandists was that my published analyses directly contradicted their bullshit. The final e-mail sent to me by the chief executive of the Digital Radio Development Bureau (forerunner of Digital Radio UK) said:

"If you are going to deliberately mis-use the information we provide to you to construct as negative a view as possible with cheap shots like those below then we just won’t co-operate with you in the future."

He saw only "cheap shots", rather than evidential analysis, in my 2008 Q2 commercial radio sector report published by Enders Analysis, which had said:

"Although it remains the most popular platform for digital radio, ‘DAB’ usage seems to be steadfastly stuck at 9.0% of total commercial radio listening, dwarfed by the continued dominance of analogue radio (69.2%). Whilst 87% of households now have access to digital TV, and 67% have access to the internet, DAB penetration remained static at 27.3% in Q2 2008. Sales of DAB receivers have failed to continue the momentum demonstrated in Q1 2008, unit sales having slowed to 108,000 in June 2008, their lowest monthly level since June 2007. With sales of DAB receivers still concentrated mainly in the Christmas period, the imminent danger is that the hardware’s relatively high average ticket price, combined with the effects of the consumer ‘squeeze’, could impact the much needed winter 2008 sales peak (552,000 units sold in December 2007).

Despite the sterling efforts of the Digital Radio Working Group (convened by the Department for Culture, Media & Sport) over the past eight months, the radio industry, as yet, seems no closer to finding an immediate solution to the problem of slow DAB take-up than it was a year ago. Although all parties agree that it is ’content’ that will drive consumers to purchase DAB radios, the major radio groups have still not unveiled any plans to stimulate the consumer market with new digital radio brands."

Five years on, the numbers may have changed but the unresolved problems with DAB radio remain exactly the same. My analyses and predictions during the last decade have proven correct … while a small army of DAB propagandists have been paid handsomely during that time to produce a massive volume of 'South Sea bubble' hot air about DAB radio, partly paid for from public funds. Doubtless they will be rewarded for their failure.


Selected writings on DAB radio:
·         Channel 4: Radio Ambitions Aim Too High, Enders Analysis, July 2007
·         Digital Radio Switchover: Somewhere Over The Rainbow?, Enders Analysis, October 2007
·         The Future Of Digital Radio: Is It DAB?, Enders Analysis, January 2008 
·         Tuned Into The Future Of Radio, Broadcast, June 2008
·         DAB Radio: Nice Platform, Shame About The Take-Up, Enders Analysis, June 2008 
·         The Second National Digital Radio Multiplex: Waiting For Godot?, Enders Analysis, October 2008
·         Channel 4 Radio: Six Feet Under, Enders Analysis, October 2008 
·         The Digital One Radio Multiplex: Desperately Seeking Subsidy, Enders Analysis, October 2008 
·         Talking Radio: Grant Goddard [Channel 4 Radio], Broadcast, October 2008
·         In The Ditch With DAB Radio, The Register, December 2008
·         Digital Radio In The UK: Progress And Challenges, EBU 3rd Digital Radio Conference, June 2009
·         Germans And Swiss Snub DAB, The Register, London, July 2009
·         'Digital Britain' And The Radio Sector, egta Radio Newsletter no.16, November 2009
·         DAB Radio In The UK: It Ain't What You Do, It's The Way That You Do It, Radio Today 'e-Radio', April 2010
·         DAB Is Dead, Index On Censorship, June 2010
·         DAB Digital Radio: Licensed To Fail, Radio Books, October 2010
·         Response to Ofcom consultation: 'An Approach To DAB Coverage Planning', UKRD Group Ltd. et al, September 2011